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January 22, 2013

Exit Polls Show Strong Results For The Left, Yair Lapid's Party Projected To Win 18-19 Seats

Israeli FlagShas may get 13 seats; United Torah Judaism 6.

 

From Ynet:

The preliminary results were as follows:

Likud -Yisrael Beiteinu: 31

Yesh Atid: 18-19

Labor: 17

Habayit Hayehudi: 12

Shas: 11-13

Hatnua: 6-7

Meretz: 6-7

United Torah Judaism: 6

Hadash: 3-5

United Arab List-Taal: 3-4

Balad: 2

Otzma Leyisrael: 0-2

Kadima: 0

Comments

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Based on these exit results, neither the right wing nor the left wing will be able to form any government without the haredim. The big winners here were the haredim, who will ensure that any future government will pass a new Tal law that exempts them from army service.

From what I've heard, the Labor party already promised the haredim that they will enact a new Tal law to exempt the from army service, if the haredim join their government.

It's interesting to note that there is an unspoken rule in Israel that nobody forms a government if they would need the Arabs to get a majority. Thus, if you don't count the Arabs, the left has about 48 seats, while the right wing/haredim together have about 62 (based on exit polls).

Now, if you don't count the Arabs or the haredim, the left has about 48 seats, while the right has about 50 seats.

Both the right and the left would then need the 16 or 18 haredi seats (depending on which exit poll you believe) to form a government.

I believe that the next prime minister of Israel will be chosen based on Aryeh Deri's decision (leader of Shas).

LAC-

bibi will definitely start with bennett giving him 43. add 18 or 19 from lapid and you have a shaky but majority coalition. lapid has said he would join bibi if charedim arent included. shas is not needed. he could even include livni which would give him 68 seats.

Then again, Netanyahu has asked all "Zionist" parties to join his coalition. If Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi can resolve their differences, being immediately to the left and right of Netanyahu's party, you could have a narrow center-right coalition that would not have to kowtow to the Haredi parties' demands to insulate their followers from the rest of the State. If Hatnua and/or Labor were to join, fine, but harder to resolve the ideological differences. (Full disclosure: I'm an MO Jew, and really like Naftali Bennett.)

Amazing how low Kadima has sunk. Perhaps they should call themselves Achora.

excellent outcome!! if likud hadnt combined parties with yisroel beiteynu, yesh atid would probably be the top party, which is amazing for a brand new politician and party. lets hope bibi has the balls to kick the parasitical charedim to the curb where they belong. i'm not counting on it but i can dream.
the only disappointing part for me is that am-shalem didnt qualify.
the wacko amnon yitzchak also failed.

"Then again" was in response to Lubavitchers Are Christians. ah-pee-chorus and I came to the same conclusion.

Unless the actual result shift a little (and it wouldn't take much), the Left can only form a majority with BOTH Yesh Atid AND Shas or UTJ. That seems unlikely.

Even though Deri (who is only one of 3 leaders of Shas right now) is much further to the Left on most issues than Yishai, I don't see him being able to go out on such a limb as to join a government with Yair Lapid.

However, stranger things have happened. So it's always possible, B'Ezras Hashem.

I do agree that there is a chance that Likud will team up with Bennet and Yair Lapid. The problem that I see with that is that Bennet is very right wing, while Lapid is not. (Perhaps center-left).

I don't think Bennet and Lapid will end up sitting in the same government, but it is possible.

If not, my above analysis stands.

If they do manage to sit in the same government, all bets are off. Israel will change for the better.

I don't think Bennet and Lapid will end up sitting in the same government, but it is possible.

They share a common interest: drafting the haredim. It is very likely that they will be the ones setting the national agenda, i.e. extorting the lion's share of non-existant cash to see this happen. This means the next term will lead to many more israelis falling below the poverty line in order to finance the very expensive inclusion of haredim in the army, while Shas will sit in the opposition. Right now, Shas is the only social pary in the country, and this will mean fewer subsidies for education of poor children and fewer social benefits in the country, particularily hard-hitting in the "periphery" (i.e. at least 30% of the country).

Well done Isreal,you were supposed to throw the bums out not Kadima so what happens now? I know Bibi will form the new government.Well done Lapid

Yair Lapid's Party Projected To Win 18-19 Seats

דידן נצח

Yesh Atid is not exactly what you call a left wing party. I am though happy for their success. I voted for them yestarday.

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