Israel's Surge Of Despair

Gregory Levey writes in Salon.com:

…While the U.S. and Israel clearly are united in the goal of stopping Iran from gaining nuclear weapons, some Israeli leaders have lost confidence in Bush's leadership when it comes to that crucial concern.… Last week, I raised these assessments with [MK Rafi] Eitan, himself a former spymaster who led the Israeli capture of Adolf Eichmann in 1960, and who was the handler of the infamous spy Jonathan Pollard in the 1980s. "Sooner or later, a year or two, America will go out from Iraq," Eitan said. "Iran will unite with the Shiites of Iraq -- with or without force -- and then with the Shiites of Syria. Is this good for Israel? No, it is bad for Israel."…

Comments

[Yochanan Lavie]

Eitan says: "Iran will unite with the Shiites of Iraq -- with or without force." Although I am not an expert, I will arrogantly assert it's not that simple.

1. The Iranians are Persians. The Iraqis and Syrians are Arabs. There is mutual racism between them. Also, many Shia in Iraq are secular. The Khomeinist version of Shiism, is, as Daniel Pipes notes, a novel mixture of Shiism, Sunniism, and Marxist liberation theology. It is not the only version of Shiism in Iraq.

2. Syria is run by a secular/Baathist regime dominated by Alawites, a heretical breakaway from mainstream ("twelver")Shiism. The Alawites are a minority, as are all Shia in Syria. It is a SUNNI majority country. The eye doctor's father put down a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood revolt in Hama in the 1980's that killed about 20,000 Sunni. I am sure it is not forgotten. Syria also has a Kurd minority, a border dispute with Turkey in Alexandretta province, and an enduring cluster-fuck in Lebanon.

3. Even if racism were overcome, the Iranian occupation of Iraq would not be a cakewalk. The terrorists in the Sunni triangle would be happy to bleed the Iranians white. The Kurds would not want to give up their hard-won autonomy. (And they're Sunni, to boot). The Turkmen would look towards Turkey for protection. Also, the opposition Mujahadeen al_Haq,an Iranian dissident army now under check by the USA, would be unleashed.

4. Iran is not even the master of its own house. Unemployment is rife, as are drug abuse and prostitution. The secularists and moderate-religious are getting restive. The Balachi, Arab, Azeri, and Kurd minorities resent Persian domination (Persians are only a slim majority in Iran). There are dissident Sunnis, and other religious minorities who resent their dhimmi status.

Besides, would Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Gulf States- all of whom have Shia minorities- allow a Shia superstate on their doorstep? I think not.

In all probability- what Eitan fears will come true. But rather than Hitler swallowing Czechoslovakia- or the Anschluss- it will be Iran's Vietnam, or Afghanistan, or (let's face it)Iraq. Maybe it's the best thing Bush can do- let Iran choke on Iraq.

[Yochanan Lavie]

Eitan says: "Iran will unite with the Shiites of Iraq -- with or without force." Although I am not an expert, I will arrogantly assert it's not that simple.

1. The Iranians are Persians. The Iraqis and Syrians are Arabs. There is mutual racism between them. Also, many Shia in Iraq are secular. The Khomeinist version of Shiism, is, as Daniel Pipes notes, a novel mixture of Shiism, Sunniism, and Marxist liberation theology. It is not the only version of Shiism in Iraq.

2. Syria is run by a secular/Baathist regime dominated by Alawites, a heretical breakaway from mainstream ("twelver")Shiism. The Alawites are a minority, as are all Shia in Syria. It is a SUNNI majority country. The eye doctor's father put down a Sunni Muslim Brotherhood revolt in Hama in the 1980's that killed about 20,000 Sunni. I am sure it is not forgotten. Syria also has a Kurd minority, a border dispute with Turkey in Alexandretta province, and an enduring cluster-fuck in Lebanon.

3. Even if racism were overcome, the Iranian occupation of Iraq would not be a cakewalk. The terrorists in the Sunni triangle would be happy to bleed the Iranians white. The Kurds would not want to give up their hard-won autonomy. (And they're Sunni, to boot). The Turkmen would look towards Turkey for protection. Also, the opposition Mujahadeen al_Haq,an Iranian dissident army now under check by the USA, would be unleashed.

4. Iran is not even the master of its own house. Unemployment is rife, as are drug abuse and prostitution. The secularists and moderate-religious are getting restive. The Balachi, Arab, Azeri, and Kurd minorities resent Persian domination (Persians are only a slim majority in Iran). There are dissident Sunnis, and other religious minorities who resent their dhimmi status.

Besides, would Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the Gulf States- all of whom have Shia minorities- allow a Shia superstate on their doorstep? I think not.

In all probability- what Eitan fears will come true. But rather than Hitler swallowing Czechoslovakia- or the Anschluss- it will be Iran's Vietnam, or Afghanistan, or (let's face it)Iraq. Maybe it's the best thing Bush can do- let Iran choke on Iraq.